A policy sensitive algorithm for air transport forecasting in
a deregulated airline industry
A study of the interdependence of
main factors governing the development of air transport. The
algorithm developed
produces forecasts of the aircraft type, number of flights and
passenger volumes at hub airports for the two cases
of airline profit and consumer surplus maximization. It comprises
sub-models for air transport demand, aircraft
operating costs and runway delay and has been applied to assess
the market potential of a proposed civilian
tiltrotor aircraft within the context of different policy
scenarios.
The work comprised the definition
and estimation of a tri-modal econometric direct demand model,
the
development of a model for fixed and variable aircraft operating
costs and the design of a statistical runway delay
model which expresses flight delay as a function of traffic
level. All three models were integrated into an algorithm
within which they influence each other and thus form a
self-constraining control loop.
The model is policy sensitive such
that different air transport scenarios can be tested. The
algorithm gives results
for both a regulated and a deregulated air transport environment
and thus allows to assess the effect of price
regulation upon the entire system. Furthermore, the influence can
be quantified that the much discussed
measures of different landing fee strategies and a limit on
turboprop operations have upon aircraft selection
and the level of runway congestion.